MARINUS – ALARM BELLS SHOULD BE RINGING
By Tasmanian Times
Posted on September 8, 2025
On a Saturday, 30 August 2025 in a meeting hall in Ulverstone, Kim Phillips-Haines, owner of Leven River Cruises and Coastline Tours Tasmania, gave a passionate speech titled “Marinus – Alarm Bells Should Be Ringing” to a local audience.
Speaking not only as a business owner but also as an advocate for Tasmania’s environment and economy, she raised serious concerns about the Marinus Link project. Phillips-Haines expressed her opposition, arguing that the government had rushed the multi-billion dollar agreement without public consultation, ignoring expert warnings and environmental risks. She argued that the project is an enormous deadweight loss and a gamble that could lead to financial ruin, increased power bills for Tasmanians, and the industrialisation of the state’s natural landscapes.
Her speech, published in full here, called for greater transparency and public input on major decisions that will affect future generations.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Thank you for allowing me to speak today. My name is Kim Phillips-Haines, and I am the owner of Leven River Cruises and Coastline Tours Tasmania. I stand before you today not just as a business owner, but as a passionate advocate for the natural beauty and vibrant ecosystems that define Tasmania, and for the prosperity of our state as a whole.
It came as a shock to many of us when the Energy Minister signed the Marinus agreement during the caretaker period, while the state election votes were still being counted. Nothing like that had ever been attempted before. The multi-billion Marinus project is the largest proposal in Tasmania’s history, so no one expected a deal to be made under such circumstances. The government had previously promised to release the Marinus Whole-of-State Business Case 30 days before making a Final Investment Decision. They broke that promise. Despite having the document available since the 16 May, the government refused to release it to the public until after Energy Minister Nick Duigan had signed the Marinus deal.
In essence, the people of Tasmania were denied the opportunity to be involved in a major decision that will determine the course of their future for many decades, potentially affecting multiple generations.
What does it mean in a democracy when the government pushes a major project through without social licence, and where do we go from here?
For those of you who have not yet looked at the Marinus Business Case document, I encourage you to do so. It is deeply troubling. In places, the document is heavily redacted, with entire pages almost completely blackened out, and whole graphs covered with black, or else their numbers concealed.
If Project Marinus is such a good deal for Tasmania, why is so much critical information being hidden?
Ruth Forrest, the Chair of the Joint Select Committee on Energy Matters, read the document and had the following to say about it,
“If you’re fossicking through the Marinus Whole of State Business Case […] to find a collective tick of approval for the project, don’t bother. It’s not there.”
Everywhere there are warning signs, interspersed with a few assertions of benefits most of which are hidden by the censor’s black marker pen.”
One of these warning signs, which should raise concerns for all of us, is the prospect of sharply rising power bills.
According to the Marinus business case, Tasmania’s Major Industrial customers face very large increases in transmission prices. Costs for them could rise by up to 45 per cent. What would this do to our industry? Households are also expected to see higher power bills, at a time when we find ourselves in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis.
The government claims that it will subsidise those affected using the revenue earned from exporting energy to the mainland via Marinus Link. But what if these large revenues never materialise?
Experts such as Professor Bruce Mountain and John Devereaux of Goanna Energy are warning that Marinus Link will face tough competition from battery storage on the mainland, which may make Marinus economically unviable.
Professor Mountain goes so far as to say that, “There is simply no prospect at all that adding the cost of Marinus Link will be profitable,” and that “It will almost certainly be an enormous deadweight loss around both Victorians and Tasmanians and as a consequence will leave Tasmanians much poorer for it for a very long period of time.”
Even ignoring these expert opinions, the Marinus Business Case itself warns that, “The Government should exercise caution in ‘locking in’ expenditure based on modelled Hydro Tasmania returns,” and also lists a number of risks including market, technology, competition, financial, and numerous project management risks, as well as sovereign and regulatory risks, and technology and competition risks, all of which could materially impact long term outcomes.
The obvious conclusion to make is that if the Marinus Link gamble fails to pay off, the consequences for Tasmania could be dire. We face a future of crushing government debt, high power bills, a falling credit rating, and – as prominent economist Saul Eslake has said – potentially even a fiscal crisis.
If that happens, what will be the solution? Raising taxes? Or selling off our publicly-owned assets?
With all these risks, high costs, and warnings, why has the government been so hasty to lock Tasmania into the Marinus agreement? And why have they excluded the Tasmanian people from the decision making process?
It should ring alarm bells for all of us that our government has acted in this way.
We also need to think about the bigger picture of how Marinus Link will change our future.
Business representatives have said that Marinus will enable Artificial Intelligence data centres, because it is not only an energy cable but will also come bundled with fibre optic cables. Considering that Tasmania has a cool climate, high water availability, and renewable energy – all ideal for data centres – we could see considerable investment in Artificial Intelligence in the future.
Let’s look at what that will mean for our lives.
Will data centres create a lot of jobs?… In short, No. Once the AI factories are built, they do not employ many people to run them.
Will the data centres bring in large tax revenues? Probably not. At the moment, the ATO is investigating several multinational technology companies for tax avoidance. They are accused of artificially splitting their businesses, so that for every $100 worth of revenue in Australia, they shift $95 to a parent company in a foreign country with a lower tax rate, and pay tax on only $5 locally. On top of this are ethical concerns. For instance, the US Senate is presently investigating a large tech company for alleged piracy and data breaches to foreign nations in connection with AI. Australia does not currently have regulations in place to properly govern Artificial Intelligence, and yet we are hurtling towards a brave, new world of AI, heedless of the consequences.
Then there is the enormous energy usage of AI data centres.
The recently-announced Launceston data centre alone is expected to eventually reach a 300-megawatt second stage.
To put that into perspective, the entire capacity of Tasmania’s energy system is currently about 2,600 megawatts, according to Hydro Tasmania.
Ignoring the impact on our power bills, there will be a great burden on our environment in order to produce the energy needed for AI, as well as for export to the mainland. At the moment, about two-thirds of Tasmania is planned to be covered by Renewable Energy Zones in the Northeast, Northwest, and Central Highlands. Wind farms are being proposed in the most inappropriate locations – even places like Robbins Island, or near large towns such as George Town, and on prime agricultural land. That’s a heavy price to pay.
Our state is blessed with lush forests, pristine rivers, and diverse wildlife. In fact, that is what draws people to Tasmania – nature, and the wild beauty of our island. If we take that away, what will be left? If we cover our state with turbines, poles, and wires; industrialising our countryside and natural habitats, what will tourists come to see? Preserving our unique environment is not just about conservation; it’s about safeguarding our natural surroundings and the livelihoods of thousands of Tasmanians who rely on tourism for their income.
You might be wondering, if the Marinus Link is such an economic and environmental disaster, why does the government continue to push ahead with it?
That’s a good question. To find an answer, we first need to look at who will pay for all the infrastructure, and who will benefit.
Who pays? All of us, the Tasmanian people. We are the ones who will have to cover a significant part of the cost of the Marinus Link cable, plus the transmission lines, the Lake Cethana pumped hydro dam, and all the rest of the infrastructure needed. And who will profit? Big business, including foreign-owned corporations. IPA research found that Australia spent over a billion dollars on subsidies to wind farms in 2024 alone, with these wind projects largely being foreign-owned.
Now I will ask you, whom is the government listening to?
Us, ordinary Tasmanians – or big business and foreign-owned corporations?
I will not venture to give an answer to that question. Instead, I will refer to the research of the University of Sussex conducted by their Centre for the Study of Corruption. The university wrote a series of articles specifically about Tasmania, in which our state was described as having a system of “Elite Cartel Corruption.”
It is a system in which close-knit, elite networks of business, politicians, news media, academia, and others form strong, informal alliances and then use their power and influence to achieve self-serving policy goals. They operate by making secret deals, bullying, excluding competitors, and conducting charade public consultations.
Essentially, we all pay a corruption tax to live in this system. The author of the Sussex articles writes that, “Corruption distorts government priorities towards big-ticket projects (e.g. infrastructure) – where corruption is easily concealed and enormously lucrative […] – at the expense of public health and education, where illicit profits are smaller and accrue more slowly.” The elite portray “their schemes as Tasmania’s only short-term opportunities” and then reap the benefits of such projects. The result is “a long, gradual, self-perpetuating decline”.
These are sobering words to read about our state.
If we are to have any hope of a good future in Tasmania, we need to make deep, meaningful reforms, and we need to start right now. As a first step towards restoring democracy to energy policy and to our state as a whole, the government must withdraw from the Marinus agreement. Yes, there may be some cost involved in doing so, but what is that compared with the billions of dollars that we, our children, and even our grandchildren will have to pay if Project Marinus goes ahead?
Instead of our current ad-hoc, exploitive energy policy, we need an evidence-based plan designed with Tasmania’s best interests in mind.
For that, the government should determine how much energy Tasmania will need for its own internal use, and then undertake a thorough investigation into different energy generation alternatives, comparing the benefits and costs – economic, social, and environmental – of each option. These findings should then be provided in an open, honest, accessible way to all Tasmanians, along with a genuine process for them to voice their decision on all major energy developments.
In closing, as we move forward, I urge decisionmakers and stakeholders to commit to transparency, to engaging in meaningful consultation with the community, and to creating a better future for Tasmania. Our natural surroundings are not just resources to be exploited, but treasures to be protected. Let us strive together for a future where progress works hand-in-hand with preservation, balancing economic growth with environmental integrity and community wellbeing. Let us unite in our dedication to safeguarding this irreplaceable environment, ensuring that Tasmania remains a jewel of natural wonder for generations to come, and that our tourism continues to flourish.
Together, through thoughtful decisions and responsible stewardship, we can protect this special place that we call home.
Thank you.
This Marinus Business Case is more redacted than my neighbour’s love notes! Trying to find a simple yes is like searching for a parking spot in Hobart during rush hour. Rising power bills? Sure, let’s gamble on export revenues that might as well be invisible, especially with battery storage looking over its shoulder like a competitive teenager. AI data centres promising jobs? More like AI that needs minimal human attention – sounds like a recipe for mass unemployment… or just very bored technicians. And let’s not forget the environmental toll; covering our pristine island in turbines might just make tourists ask for a map to the nearest coffee shop. If this isn’t an elite cartel’s dream project, I don’t know what is – all risk, no reward, and us Tasmanians holding the bill. Time to check if our credit rating can even handle the shock!